Analyze In-depth Player Analysis for Cubs vs Dodgers – September 10th, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Chicago Cubs on September 10, 2024, in a matchup of two teams trending in different directions. The Dodgers, with a record of 86-58, have maintained a strong position in the National League, while the Cubs sit at 74-70, struggling to find consistency. In their last encounter on September 9, the Cubs delivered a surprising 10-4 victory over the Dodgers, marking a notable win for the underdog.

Tonight’s game features a compelling pitching duel, as the Dodgers are projected to start Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Despite his impressive ranking, Yamamoto has struggled recently, projecting to pitch only 4.2 innings while allowing 1.6 earned runs. Conversely, Cubs starter Shota Imanaga, ranked 78th, is coming off a remarkable performance that saw him pitch a no-hitter on September 4. However, his projections indicate potential difficulties, as he may allow 3.2 earned runs and 5.6 hits.

The Dodgers boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, ranked high in both home runs and batting average. They are projected to score an impressive 5.32 runs, capitalizing on Imanaga’s flyball tendencies. In contrast, the Cubs’ offense, while slightly below average, has shown signs of life, particularly through Ian Happ and Cody Bellinger, who have been impactful lately.

With the Dodgers favored at -160 on the moneyline, projections suggest they should outperform this line, indicating a possible value bet on Los Angeles. As the stakes rise in this pivotal series, the Dodgers look to bounce back and reclaim their dominance against Chicago.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  With 6 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Shota Imanaga will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Seiya Suzuki has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .271 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .237 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (42.8% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 94.9-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 84th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Max Muncy has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Today’s version of the Dodgers projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .331 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .347 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 60 games (+11.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 away games (+11.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)