Analyze In-depth Player Analysis for Cardinals vs Dodgers – August 6th, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On August 6, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Dodgers currently hold a strong record of 65-48, positioning themselves favorably in the National League, while the Cardinals sit at 57-57, having endured an average season. In their most recent encounter, the Dodgers secured a decisive victory, further showcasing their offensive prowess.

This series marks the third game between these two teams, and the Dodgers are projected to start Shohei Ohtani, who boasts an impressive ERA of 2.40 this season, ranking him as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Ohtani’s performance has been stellar, although his 3.23 xFIP suggests he might not maintain this level of excellence. He projects to pitch 4.1 innings today, allowing 1.8 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters on average, which indicates room for improvement.

Facing him is Cardinals pitcher Matthew Liberatore, who has a Win/Loss record of 6-9 and an ERA of 3.96. While his numbers are solid, they fall short of Ohtani’s elite status. Liberatore projects to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 3.5 earned runs, which could spell trouble against a Dodgers offense that ranks 2nd in MLB and is known for its power, having hit the 2nd most home runs this season.

Betting lines reflect this matchup’s dynamics, with the Dodgers favored at -205 and an implied team total of 5.25 runs, underscoring their strong offensive capabilities. Meanwhile, the Cardinals face an uphill battle with a low implied team total of 3.75 runs. With the Dodgers in excellent form, they will look to capitalize on their advantages and seize another victory in this series.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matthew Liberatore to throw 83 pitches in this game (9th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Willson Contreras has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 95.8-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  When estimating his strikeout ability, Shohei Ohtani projects as the 5th-best SP in the league currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mookie Betts’s true offensive ability to be a .347, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .058 deviation between that mark and his actual .289 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.70 Units / 46% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+10.75 Units / 30% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+145/-185)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.30 Units / 114% ROI)