Analyze In-depth Player Analysis for Athletics vs Mariners – September 28th, 2024

Oakland Athletics

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on September 28, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, the stage is set for an intriguing American League West matchup. The Mariners, sitting at 83-77, are enjoying an above-average season as they vie for a playoff spot. In contrast, the Athletics have struggled, posting a 69-91 record.

In yesterday’s game, the Mariners shut out the Athletics 2-0, showcasing their ability to control the game despite having a below-average offense, ranked 22nd in the league. Seattle’s offense struggles with consistency, specifically in batting average where they rank 29th. However, they do pack some punch in the form of home runs, ranking 13th, which could play a pivotal role in today’s matchup.

Starting for the Mariners is Emerson Hancock, a right-hander ranked 299th in the league among starting pitchers. While his 4.72 ERA appears average, his peripherals like a 5.35 FIP suggest he’s been fortunate this season. Hancock’s low strikeout rate could benefit from facing an Athletics lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts, potentially offering him an edge.

On the mound for Oakland is Joey Estes, who has struggled with a 4.99 ERA. Despite his underwhelming season, his 4.49 xERA suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. Estes will face a Mariners lineup that ranks 1st in strikeouts, potentially neutralizing one of their offensive strengths.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Mariners a slight 55% win probability, slightly above their implied odds. With both teams struggling offensively, expect a close low-scoring affair, with the Mariners’ hopes likely hinging on their power versus an Athletics bullpen ranked 12th.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  In his previous outing, Joey Estes didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and was only able to post 1 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Brent Rooker has strong power (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (29.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Emerson Hancock has a pitch-to-contact profile (16th percentile K%) — great news for Rooker.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Oakland Athletics have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Recording 15.1 outs per start this year on average, Emerson Hancock places him the 24th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Julio Rodriguez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 98-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 127 games (+10.25 Units / 7% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+130)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 79 games (+8.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Lawrence Butler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+14.65 Units / 36% ROI)