Analyze In-depth Player Analysis for Athletics vs Mariners – September 28th, 2024

Oakland Athletics

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on September 28, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, the stakes are high for Seattle, who are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Mariners, standing at 83-77, are having an above-average season but need every win to keep their postseason hopes alive. In contrast, the Athletics, with a 69-91 record, have already been eliminated from playoff contention, marking a disappointing season for them.

In the first game of this series, the Mariners secured a 2-0 victory, showcasing their ability to capitalize on the Athletics’ struggles. Emerson Hancock, projected to start for Seattle, will look to build on his recent form, having pitched effectively in his last outing on September 21, where he went five innings with two earned runs and no walks. Despite his 4.72 ERA, Hancock’s peripherals suggest he has been somewhat fortunate this season, with a 5.35 FIP indicating potential regression.

Joey Estes takes the mound for Oakland, hoping to rebound from a rough start on September 22, where he allowed five earned runs over four innings. Despite a 4.99 ERA, Estes’s 4.49 xERA suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform better than his stats indicate.

Both offenses have struggled this season, with the Mariners ranking 22nd in overall offense and 29th in batting average, while the Athletics are 21st in offense and 25th in batting average. However, both teams have shown power potential, with Oakland ranking 8th and Seattle 13th in home runs.

Seattle’s bullpen, ranked 24th, has been a weak spot, contrasting with Oakland’s more reliable 12th-ranked bullpen. The Mariners are favored with a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%, while THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a slightly lower win probability of 55%. With both teams having their strengths and weaknesses, this matchup promises to be a closely contested affair.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  In his previous outing, Joey Estes didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and was only able to post 1 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Seth Brown – Over/Under Hits
  Seth Brown is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Oakland Athletics have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof, Tyler Soderstrom).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Emerson Hancock is projected to throw 83 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 15th-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Julio Rodriguez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 99.1-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 127 games (+10.25 Units / 7% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+130)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 79 games (+8.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 39 games (+11.20 Units / 19% ROI)