Analyze In-depth Player Analysis for Angels vs Padres – May 13th, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres will host the Los Angeles Angels on May 13, 2025, for the second game of their interleague series. San Diego is enjoying a strong season, currently holding a record of 25-15, while Los Angeles struggles at 17-23. The Padres recently showcased their momentum by winning yesterday’s matchup, further solidifying their position in the standings.

Dylan Cease is projected to take the mound for the Padres. Despite a 1-2 record and a below-average ERA of 4.91, Cease’s advanced metrics suggest he’s been unlucky this season, as indicated by his solid xFIP of 3.80. He is a high-strikeout pitcher, boasting an impressive 27.0% strikeout rate. This could play to his advantage against a high-strikeout Angels offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB in that category.

On the other side, Jose Soriano will start for the Angels. Soriano has a record of 2-4 with a respectable ERA of 4.00. However, his low strikeout percentage of 19.1% may hinder him against the Padres, who have the lowest strikeout rate in MLB. This matchup favors the Padres’ offense, which ranks 12th overall and is 1st in team batting average.

The Padres’ bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB, adds another layer of confidence for San Diego, especially when facing an Angels bullpen that sits at 22nd. With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Padres are favored with a moneyline of -200, suggesting a strong likelihood of victory. The projections favor a high team total of 4.35 runs for the Padres, while the Angels are expected to struggle with an implied total of just 3.15 runs. This matchup sets the stage for the Padres to capitalize on their strengths against a faltering Angels squad.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Jose Soriano is expected to post an average of 3.9 strikeouts in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Logan O’Hoppe is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jorge Soler hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Dylan Cease’s four-seam fastball usage has dropped by 6.1% from last year to this one (43.5% to 37.4%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 87.9-mph EV last year has decreased to 85.4-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 18.8% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+10.10 Units / 54% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.35 Units / 32% ROI)