Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Yankees
(-110/-110)-150
As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on October 30, 2024, at Yankee Stadium, fans are in for an exciting interleague clash between two powerhouse teams. The Yankees, currently favored with a moneyline of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%, will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. Meanwhile, the Dodgers, with a moneyline of +125 and a 43% implied win probability, aim to upset the odds.
Gerrit Cole will take the mound for the Yankees. Despite his impressive 3.41 ERA this season, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests that his luck might run out given his 3.99 xFIP. Cole’s tendency to allow flyballs could be problematic against the Dodgers’ potent lineup, which leads MLB in home runs. However, Cole’s ranking as the 30th best starting pitcher indicates his capability to navigate through tough lineups.
On the flip side, the Dodgers will counter with Jack Flaherty, who boasts a strong 13-7 record and a 3.17 ERA. Despite his solid stats, projections indicate that Flaherty might struggle, particularly against a Yankees offense that ranks 3rd in MLB. Flaherty’s control will be tested against the Yankees’ patience at the plate, as they lead MLB in walks. However, his low walk rate could mitigate this threat.
Offensively, the Dodgers’ lineup is the best in MLB, led by Freddie Freeman, who has been on a tear with four home runs and a 1.540 OPS over the last week. The Yankees’ offense isn’t far behind, with Juan Soto leading the charge, boasting a 1.016 OPS in his last four games.
Both teams possess top-tier bullpens, with the Dodgers ranked 2nd and the Yankees 4th. This game promises to be a thrilling battle between elite offenses and resilient pitching staffs, with both teams looking to make a statement as they head into the final stretch of the season.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)Compared to the average starting pitcher, Jack Flaherty has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.6 adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Gerrit Cole in the 90th percentile among all SPs in the game.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- The New York Yankees (22.4% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the most strikeout-prone batting order of the day.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 79 of their last 141 games (+15.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 108 games (+24.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)