Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for Tigers vs Guardians Match Saturday, October 12th, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers are set to face off in a pivotal American League Division Series matchup on October 12, 2024, at Progressive Field. With both teams vying for a spot in the ALCS, this Game 5 is set up to be a thrilling decider.

On the mound for the Guardians is left-hander Matthew Boyd, who enters the game ranked as the 50th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Boyd, with an ERA of 2.72 this season, has been solid, though his xFIP of 3.89 suggests he may have benefited from some luck. Despite this, Boyd’s high strikeout rate of 27.7% could play well against the Tigers’ lineup, which ranks 4th in terms of most strikeouts.

Opposing Boyd is Tarik Skubal, the Tigers’ ace and the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB by the same metrics. Skubal boasts an impressive 18-4 record and a stellar 2.39 ERA. His SIERA of 2.89 indicates he’s been slightly fortunate, but his elite status is undisputed. However, Skubal faces a challenge against a Guardians offense that is known for being tough to strike out, ranking 5th in the least strikeouts.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 17th overall but shine with their speed, placing 5th in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ bats have struggled, ranking 25th overall, and 26th in stolen bases. Steven Kwan has been a standout for Cleveland in the past week, hitting .500 with a 1.118 OPS, while Justyn-Henry Malloy has emerged as the Tigers’ hottest hitter, sporting a .750 average and 1.800 OPS over the same span.

Betting odds slightly favor the Tigers with a moneyline of -120, translating to an implied win probability of 52%. However, given the Guardians’ robust bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, and Boyd’s potential to exploit Detroit’s strikeout tendencies, Cleveland’s +100 moneyline could offer intriguing value in what promises to be a tightly contested game.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Tarik Skubal figures to be at an advantage squaring off against 6 batters in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in today’s matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Jake Rogers, the Tigers’s expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Andres Gimenez is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Detroit (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games (+16.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 40 away games (+20.25 Units / 35% ROI)
• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+110/-140)
  Tarik Skubal has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.35 Units / 48% ROI)