Analyze the Astros vs Guardians Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Saturday, September 28, 2024

Houston Astros

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Cleveland Guardians

In a crucial American League matchup, the Cleveland Guardians host the Houston Astros at Progressive Field on September 28, 2024. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, with the Guardians boasting a 92-68 record and the Astros sitting at 87-73. The Guardians, with their great season, currently hold a slight edge over the Astros, who are having an above-average year. This is the second game of the series, with Houston having taken the first game 5-2 on September 27.

Cleveland will send Ben Lively to the mound, who has put together a solid campaign with a 13-9 record and a 3.80 ERA. However, Lively’s 4.50 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate this season. Facing a potent Astros lineup ranked 9th best in MLB and 3rd in team batting average, Lively will need to capitalize on his strengths to keep the Guardians in the game.

Houston counters with Justin Verlander, whose season has been a rollercoaster with a 4-6 record and a bloated 5.55 ERA. However, his 4.86 SIERA indicates he has been unlucky, and he may find improvement against a Guardians offense that ranks 16th best in MLB. Cleveland’s offense has been fueled by Jose Ramirez, who has been on a tear in his last 7 games, posting a blistering .368 batting average and a 1.347 OPS.

Both teams’ bullpens are in the top 10, with Cleveland’s ranked 6th and Houston’s right behind at 7th, suggesting a tight contest. The betting market is similarly divided, with the Guardians holding a slight edge with a -115 moneyline, suggesting a 51% implied win probability, while the Astros are at -105, translating to a 49% implied win probability.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this as a close game, giving the Astros a slight edge with a 53% win probability. If Verlander can find his form, Houston might just inch out a victory in this pivotal late-season battle.

Houston Astros Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Because flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball bats, Justin Verlander and his 41.4% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today’s game matching up with 3 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jon Singleton has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 82.8-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-180/+135)
  Ben Lively’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (60.2 vs. 54.4% last year) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Typically, hitters like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Justin Verlander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+14.70 Units / 56% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 152 games (+15.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 47 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)