See the Updated Player Rankings for White Sox vs Tigers – September 27, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park on September 27, 2024, the stakes are high for the Tigers. With an 85-74 record, Detroit is having an above-average season, currently contending for a potential playoff spot. In contrast, the White Sox are enduring a dismal season with a 39-120 record, ranking last in every key offensive category, and already eliminated from playoff contention.

The Tigers enter this American League Central matchup after a narrow 4-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays on September 26. Meanwhile, the White Sox are coming off an impressive 7-0 shutout win against the Los Angeles Angels, a rare bright spot in their otherwise bleak season.

Detroit will send Casey Mize to the mound, a right-hander with a 4.36 ERA and a 2-6 record over 20 starts this year. While Mize is ranked as the 115th best starting pitcher, his ability to induce groundballs could neutralize Chicago’s power-deprived lineup, which ranks dead last in home runs. Mize’s projected 1.9 earned runs allowed today is a bright spot for the Tigers.

The White Sox counter with Garrett Crochet, an elite left-hander ranked 3rd among MLB starting pitchers. Despite a 6-12 record, Crochet’s strong 2.40 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky, and his potential to outperform his 3.68 ERA looms large. However, his projected 3.5 innings pitched could strain a White Sox bullpen that ranks 27th, a stark contrast to the Tigers’ 7th-ranked relief corps.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Tigers a slight edge with a 57% win probability, compared to an implied 60% from betting odds. Detroit’s stronger bullpen and their home-field advantage could prove pivotal as they look to solidify their postseason aspirations.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Garrett Crochet’s 96.5-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 96th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under Total Bases
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Luis Robert Jr.’s true offensive ability to be a .317, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .032 gap between that mark and his actual .285 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Casey Mize is projected to throw 78 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 4th-least on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Matt Vierling – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  In the last 14 days, Matt Vierling’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Parker Meadows hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-165)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 46 games (+18.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under Team Total
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 33 away games (+12.20 Units / 32% ROI)
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Trey Sweeney has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 16 games at home (+4.95 Units / 29% ROI)