In-depth Player Analysis for Phillies vs Mets – Sunday September 22, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 22, 2024, at Citi Field, this National League East matchup carries significant weight. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Phillies boasting a 92-63 record, giving them a slight edge over the Mets, who are 86-69. Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler, ranked as the 4th-best starting pitcher in MLB, will face off against Tylor Megill of the Mets, who sits at 109th. Wheeler’s impressive 16-6 record and 2.56 ERA underline his dominance, though his 3.38 xFIP suggests he may not maintain this level of success indefinitely.

The Mets’ offense ranks as the 7th-best in MLB, displaying power with home runs and solid batting averages, which they’ll need against Wheeler’s elite pitching. Luisangel Acuna has been a standout for New York over the past week, hitting .364 with a 1.346 OPS, showcasing his potential to impact the game. On the other hand, Philadelphia’s offense is even more potent, ranking 4th overall. Nick Castellanos has been a key contributor recently, recording a .296 average and .877 OPS over the last seven games.

In the bullpen, the Phillies hold a distinct advantage with the 8th-best ranking, while the Mets lag at 23rd. This disparity could be pivotal in a close contest. Betting markets favor the Phillies, offering a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees even more value in backing Philadelphia with a 62% projected win probability. With a projected score of 4.56 runs for the Phillies, bettors might find opportunities in wagering on the road team’s success.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  Zack Wheeler has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 8.1 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Bryce Harper has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.2-mph to 97.7-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Tylor Megill – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Tylor Megill has utilized his four-seamer 7.9% less often this season (47.8%) than he did last season (55.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Despite posting a .360 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mark Vientos has had some very good luck given the .045 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .315.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (+125)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 100 games (+18.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 81 games (+16.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.60 Units / 37% ROI)