Player Analysis for Angels vs Astros – September 21, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels at Minute Maid Park on September 21, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Astros, sitting with an 84-70 record, are enjoying an above-average season and are vying for playoff positioning in the tightly contested American League West. On the other hand, the Angels, with a disappointing 62-92 record, are enduring a terrible season and have already been eliminated from division contention.

Houston comes into this matchup as a big betting favorite, with an implied win probability of 68%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also sees the Astros as favorites, giving them a 67% chance to win. This aligns with their current form and superior offensive capabilities, ranking 11th in MLB overall and 3rd in team batting average. Houston’s offense looks poised to capitalize on the Angels’ struggling pitching staff, projected to score a high 5.44 runs on average in this game.

The pitching matchup features Ronel Blanco for the Astros and Reid Detmers for the Angels. Blanco, despite being ranked as the 151st best starting pitcher, boasts an impressive 2.88 ERA this season. However, his 4.15 xFIP suggests he might be due for regression. Detmers, meanwhile, has had a rough year with a 6.05 ERA, but his 3.91 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky and could improve.

Houston’s offensive depth could be a difference-maker, especially against an Angels bullpen ranked 28th. The Angels’ offense, ranked 28th overall, will need a spark from Eric Wagaman, who’s been their best hitter over the last seven games, boasting a .355 average and a 1.032 OPS.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Reid Detmers – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)
  Reid Detmers has been given an above-average leash this year, recording 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under Total Bases
  Brandon Drury has been unlucky this year, notching a .218 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .299 — a .081 gap.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Niko Kavadas, Logan O’Hoppe, Mickey Moniak).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Ronel Blanco’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (61.7% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under Total Bases
  In the last two weeks, Victor Caratini’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Houston Astros batters as a unit rank 26th- in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 91.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 85 games (+17.90 Units / 17% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+15.65 Units / 56% ROI)