Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Mariners vs Rangers – Saturday, September 21, 2024

Seattle Mariners

@

Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners prepare to face off on September 21, 2024, at Globe Life Field, both teams find themselves navigating different paths within the American League West. The Rangers, with a record of 73-81, are enduring a below-average season and have been eliminated from division contention. Meanwhile, the Mariners, holding a 79-75 record, are in the midst of an average season and still have a slim chance to make a push for a Wild Card spot.

In their previous matchup, the Mariners came out on top, setting the stage for this second game of the series. On the mound, the Rangers will send seasoned right-hander Max Scherzer, ranked as the 54th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Scherzer, despite a 2-4 record, boasts a respectable 3.95 ERA and projects to pitch 5.3 innings while striking out 6.3 batters. His control could be pivotal against Seattle’s high-walk offense, which ranks 4th in drawing walks.

The Mariners will counter with Emerson Hancock, whose 4.83 ERA and 5.98 xERA suggest he’s been fortunate this season. With projections indicating he might allow 2.7 earned runs and only strike out 3.4 batters, Hancock could face challenges against a Rangers lineup that, while ranked 25th in offensive power, has shown recent signs of life through Leody Taveras’s hot streak.

The Rangers’ bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, could provide a significant edge late in the game against a Mariners bullpen ranked 21st. With the Rangers as betting favorites, boasting a moneyline of -140 and a projected win probability of 56% according to THE BAT X, the matchup leans slightly in their favor. As both teams vie for pride and potential playoff implications, this game promises to be a compelling contest.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Over his previous 3 starts, Emerson Hancock has experienced a big drop off in his fastball velocity: from 92.7 mph over the entire season to 91.3 mph in recent games.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Julio Rodriguez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 99.6-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Luke Raley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – -0.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line (-115)
  Max Scherzer is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  In terms of his home runs, Wyatt Langford has had bad variance on his side this year. His 14.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.4.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games at home (+15.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 42 away games (+13.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+8.00 Units / 23% ROI)