Read the Giants vs Royals Prediction and Game Breakdown – September 21st, 2024

San Francisco Giants

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals, sitting at 82-72, are pushing for a strong finish to their above-average season as they host the San Francisco Giants at Kauffman Stadium on September 21, 2024. The Giants, at 75-79, have had an average season, and while they’re not in contention for the division, they still aim to make a statement in this interleague matchup.

In the first game of this series, the Royals secured a victory over the Giants, which could fuel their momentum going into the second game. Brady Singer takes the mound for Kansas City, bringing with him an ERA of 3.53 and a solid ranking as the 62nd best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his decent ERA, his 4.47 xERA hints that he’s been a bit fortunate this season. Nonetheless, Singer’s ability to strike out an average of 5.7 batters per game could pose challenges for a Giants offense ranked 21st in MLB, particularly in batting average and home runs.

The Giants counter with Landen Roupp, who has an impressive 3.02 ERA but a 4.03 xFIP, suggesting he’s also benefited from some luck. Roupp’s high walk rate could be a concern, especially against a Royals lineup that ranks 3rd in least walks in MLB, potentially neutralizing his control issues.

Kansas City’s offense, ranked 14th overall, is supported by Bobby Witt Jr.’s recent hot streak, boasting a .400 batting average and a 1.319 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Giants’ Heliot Ramos has been a bright spot, recording a .333 batting average and a 1.058 OPS in the same period.

With the Royals favored by both betting lines and the leading MLB projection system, Kansas City is poised for another strong showing, aiming to capitalize on their offensive strengths and Singer’s pitching prowess against a Giants team that has struggled to find consistency this season.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  With a 1.12 difference between Landen Roupp’s 3.02 ERA and his 4.14 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year and ought to perform worse in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 87.7-mph seasonal average has fallen to 76.8-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher today) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Brady Singer’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2335 rpm) has been quite a bit better than than his seasonal rate (2275 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Adam Frazier has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .204 rate is quite a bit lower than his .245 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Kansas City’s 89.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in MLB: #3 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 75 games at home (+8.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 55 away games (+10.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Patrick Bailey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.85 Units / 39% ROI)