Check Out Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Mariners vs Rangers – Friday, September 20, 2024

Seattle Mariners

@

Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on September 20, 2024, both teams find themselves navigating the challenges of the American League West. The Rangers, with a 73-80 record, are having a below-average season, while the Mariners have managed an average campaign at 78-75. Despite their struggles, this matchup holds intrigue, especially with the starting pitchers slated for this game.

Jacob deGrom takes the mound for the Rangers, bringing his elite status as the 10th-best starting pitcher in MLB. However, deGrom’s peripheral stats suggest some luck, with a stark contrast between his perfect 0.00 ERA and a 3.87 xFIP. He’ll face a Mariners lineup that ranks 22nd in overall offensive strength but shows some prowess in home runs, sitting at 14th. George Kirby, the Mariners’ projected starter and ranked 22nd among MLB pitchers, will look to capitalize on the Rangers’ offensive struggles, as they rank 25th overall.

Both pitchers, deGrom and Kirby, have their own challenges. DeGrom’s projections indicate a short outing, with an expectation to pitch just 4.9 innings, while Kirby is projected for a more standard 5.7 innings. The Mariners’ offense, patient in drawing walks, may find it difficult against deGrom’s excellent control.

The Rangers’ bullpen, ranked 6th in MLB, could play a pivotal role in maintaining any lead deGrom might hand over. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ bullpen, ranked 20th, will need to step up to support Kirby against a Rangers lineup that has struggled but features a hot bat in Wyatt Langford over the past week.

Betting markets see this as a close game, with both teams having nearly equal implied win probabilities. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Rangers a slight edge at 51%, aligning with the betting odds. This matchup promises a tightly contested affair, where pitching and bullpen performance will likely determine the outcome.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  George Kirby has tallied 17.3 outs per start this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Justin Turner is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Luke Raley hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  With a 1.67 deviation between Jacob deGrom’s 12.97 K/9 and his 11.30 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and ought to see worse results the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  Josh Jung has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 76.9-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect better results for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games at home (+14.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 56 away games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Josh H. Smith has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+8.90 Units / 17% ROI)