Top Player Prop Picks for Dodgers vs Marlins – September 18, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to face off in the second game of their series at LoanDepot Park on September 18, 2024. The Marlins, with a dismal 56-95 record, have already been eliminated from division contention, while the Dodgers, boasting an impressive 89-62 record, are eyeing a strong playoff position. In the first game of this series, the Marlins managed an unexpected 11-9 victory over the Dodgers, surprising many given their struggles this season.

On the mound, Miami is projected to start Ryan Weathers, a left-hander who has shown flashes of competence with a 3.55 ERA, though his 4.07 xERA suggests a degree of luck. Weathers is a groundball specialist, which could help neutralize the power-hitting Dodgers, who rank 3rd in home runs this season. Los Angeles counters with right-hander Landon Knack, who has struggled, as evidenced by his poor power ranking. His 3.70 ERA is decent, but his 4.29 xFIP indicates potential regression, especially against a Marlins team that surprisingly exploded for 11 runs in their previous meeting.

Offensively, the Dodgers are a powerhouse, ranking 2nd overall and 5th in batting average, while the Marlins sit near the bottom in most categories. However, Otto Lopez has been a bright spot for Miami recently, boasting a .318 batting average and 1.057 OPS over the last week, providing a spark in a lineup needing consistency.

Despite the betting market heavily favoring the Dodgers, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Marlins a slightly better chance than the odds suggest, projecting Miami to score 4.55 runs on average, compared to the Dodgers’ 5.92. With Knack’s vulnerabilities and Weathers’ potential to stifle the Dodgers’ power, there may be value in taking a chance on the underdog Marlins in this matchup.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Landon Knack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Landon Knack’s 2440-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 89th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Compared to their .355 overall projected rate, the .343 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup considerably weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Ryan Weathers will average a total of 4.5 strikeouts in today’s matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jesus Sanchez has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 52 games at home (+19.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 72 games (+14.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Connor Norby – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Connor Norby has hit the Hits Over in his last 14 games at home (+15.00 Units / 57% ROI)