Review the Rays vs Phillies Insights and Game Breakdown – September 10, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 10, 2024, they find themselves in a favorable position, currently boasting an 86-58 record. The Phillies are not only in good standing for a potential playoff push but have also just edged the Rays 2-1 in their last encounter on September 9. This matchup marks the second game in the series and holds significance as both teams vie for momentum.

On the mound, the Phillies are projected to start Ranger Suarez, who currently ranks as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB. Suarez has had an impressive season with a 12-6 record and an excellent ERA of 2.90. In his last outing on September 5, he showcased his skills, throwing five innings with no earned runs, four strikeouts, three hits, and two walks. The matchup against a Tampa Bay offense that has struggled this year, ranking 26th in MLB, sets the stage for Suarez to excel.

In contrast, the Rays will send Taj Bradley to the mound. Bradley, with a 6-10 record and an average ERA of 4.40, has had a less consistent season and ranks 66th among pitchers. His projections indicate that he could potentially allow more earned runs than he’d prefer against a strong Phillies lineup, which ranks 4th in MLB in offensive production.

The projections favor the Phillies, indicating an average scoring expectation of 4.22 runs, while the Rays are projected to struggle, with an expected average of only 3.69 runs. Given the overall dynamic—especially with the Phillies’ potent offense and Suarez’s form—the Phillies are positioned as the clear favorites in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+155)
  The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Jose Caballero has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.8-mph dropping to 79.7-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that groundball pitchers hold a big advantage over groundball batters, Ranger Suarez and his 51.1% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in this outing facing 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  When it comes to his home runs, Bryce Harper has had positive variance on his side this year. His 28.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 20.8.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Garrett Stubbs, the Phillies’s expected catcher in today’s game, grades out as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 85 games (+13.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 70 of their last 122 games (+13.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+190/-250)
  Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+11.40 Units / 27% ROI)