Winning Probability and Match Preview for Rays vs Yankees – 9/24/2026

Tampa Bay Rays

@

New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Ian Seymour is an extreme flyball pitcher (39% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ryan Vilade – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Ryan Vilade has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  When it comes to his strikeout skill, Cameron Schlittler projects as the 10th-best SP in MLB currently, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+12.80 Units / 47% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 31% ROI)
• Richie Palacios – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)
  Richie Palacios has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+26.00 Units / 433% ROI)