Analyze the Yankees vs D-Backs Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Sunday, September 20, 2026

New York Yankees

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Arizona Diamondbacks

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Among all SPs, Will Warren’s fastball spin rate of 2541 rpm ranks in the 94th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Luis García Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Luis Garcia Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Throwing 92.8 adjusted pitches per GS since the start of last season on average, Corbin Burnes ranks in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-110)
  The 4th-best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+5.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (+7.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Luis García Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+155/-200)
  Luis García Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)