Los Angeles Angels
@
Washington Nationals
-105O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-115
(-110/-110)-115
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Walbert Urena – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Among all starters, Walbert Urena’s fastball velocity of 97.3 mph ranks in the 94th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Extreme flyball bats like Mike Trout are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Andrew Alvarez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Los Angeles’s 88.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in Major League Baseball: #25 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Andrew Alvarez – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)Andrew Alvarez has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Brady House – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Brady House has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (95% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Brady House – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+200/-265)Brady House has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.