Philadelphia Phillies
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
-130O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)+110
(-120/+100)+110
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Today, Kyle Schwarber is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 43.6% rate (100th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Taylor Clarke may not stay on the mound for more than a couple frames considering he will be treated as more of an opener.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)Gabriel Moreno’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Today’s version of the D-Backs projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .310 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .325 overall projected rate.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games (+6.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI)