Team Stats and Insights for Astros vs Mets Match Preview – 8/30/2026

Houston Astros

@

New York Mets

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  In his last GS, Ethan Pecko was in good form and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Isaac Paredes has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Houston Astros – Moneyline (+110)
  The Houston Astros projected batting order projects as the 4th-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Mets Insights

• Zach Thornton – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Zachary Thornton has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Carson Benge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Carson Benge has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph dropping to 83.3-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York’s 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in baseball: #4 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 23 games at home (+11.85 Units / 40% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 away games (+7.80 Units / 54% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+135/-180)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.70 Units / 87% ROI)