Rockies vs Reds Score Prediction and Game Analysis – July 09, 2024

Colorado Rockies

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Cincinnati Reds

Coming off of a dominant 6-0 victory over the Colorado Rockies, the Cincinnati Reds look to keep their momentum going in the second game of the series at Great American Ball Park on July 9, 2024. Despite having a below-average season with a 43-48 record, the Reds find themselves facing the Rockies, who are enduring a brutal year at 32-59.

Nick Lodolo takes the mound for Cincinnati, and he’s been one of the team’s most reliable arms this season. With an 8-3 record and an impressive 2.96 ERA, Lodolo ranks as the 42nd-best starting pitcher in MLB, according to our Power Rankings. However, his 3.74 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate and might regress. In his last outing on June 23, Lodolo’s performance was uneventful, with 5 innings pitched, yielding 3 earned runs, 3 strikeouts, 5 hits, and 4 walks.

Opposing him is Cal Quantrill for the Rockies. Quantrill sports a 6-6 record and a respectable 3.77 ERA, but his 4.40 xFIP indicates some luck as well. Just under a week ago, he pitched decently, giving up 2 earned runs over 5 innings on July 4. Quantrill’s low strikeout rate (17.5 K%) pairs interestingly against the Reds’ offense, which is known for striking out frequently (ranked 6th in most strikeouts).

On the offensive side, the Reds feature Elly De La Cruz, their top hitter this season with a .813 OPS, 15 home runs, and 45 stolen bases. Recently, Spencer Steer has stepped up, posting a 1.088 OPS over his last 7 games with 3 home runs and 6 RBIs.

For the Rockies, Brenton Doyle has been a bright spot. Doyle boasts a .780 OPS on the year and has been scorching hot this week, hitting .474 with a 1.513 OPS, 2 home runs, and 6 RBIs over his last 6 games.

The Reds, with their current moneyline of -170, hold an implied win probability of 61%, which aligns well with projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, giving them a 60% chance to win. The game total sits at 8.5 runs, with the Reds having a high implied team total of 4.75 runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to league average, Cal Quantrill has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an extra 4.4 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Nolan Jones is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Brendan Rodgers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Nick Lodolo’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (54.8% this year) is likely hurting his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jeimer Candelario has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 84-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Will Benson, Rece Hinds, Edwin Rios, Elly De La Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+14.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 55 games (+12.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+14.00 Units / 16% ROI)