Discover Current Player Trends for D-Backs vs Rays – 8/16/24

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 16, 2024, they find themselves in a pivotal moment of the season. The Rays, currently sitting at 59-61, are having an average season and are looking to gain traction against a strong opponent. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, boasting a record of 69-53, are enjoying a solid campaign and are in the thick of the playoff race.

In their last outing, the Rays faced the Houston Astros and suffered a narrow 2-1 loss. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks had a more favorable result, defeating the Colorado Rockies 11-4, showcasing their potent offense. This will be the first game of the series, and both teams will be eager to set the tone early.

On the mound, the Rays are projected to start Ryan Pepiot, who ranks as the 50th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Pepiot has shown promise this season with a 3.92 ERA and a solid performance in his last start, where he pitched six innings with no earned runs. However, he has struggled with allowing hits, projecting to give up an average of 3.8 hits today, which could be a concern against a high-scoring team like the Diamondbacks.

Ryne Nelson, the Diamondbacks’ projected starter, has been less consistent, with a 4.51 ERA this year. However, his 3.65 FIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve moving forward. The projections indicate that the Rays have a slight edge, forecasting them to score around 4.04 runs, while the Diamondbacks are projected for just 3.59 runs.

With both teams having strong bullpens—ranked 5th for the Rays and 2nd for the Diamondbacks—this matchup could hinge on the starting pitchers’ performances. The Rays may have a slight advantage, making them an intriguing option for bettors looking for value in this closely contested game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Ryne Nelson’s 94.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 75th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Jake McCarthy has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup today (.313 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .331 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ryan Pepiot to be on a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Ben Rortvedt’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 86.6-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 74.8-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 60 of their last 100 games (+17.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 38 games (+19.00 Units / 39% ROI)
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-4000)
  Jake McCarthy has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+15.00 Units / 214% ROI)