Phillies vs Reds Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Tuesday July 7, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Cincinnati Reds

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  Out of all starters, Zack Wheeler’s fastball spin rate of 2438 rpm ranks in the 83rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  J.T. Realmuto has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Derek Hill).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Andrew Abbott has averaged 93.2 adjusted pitches per start this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Elly De La Cruz has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-165)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 away games (+4.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Edmundo Sosa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.60 Units / 41% ROI)