Blue Jays vs Mariners Insights and Game Breakdown – 7/05/2026

Toronto Blue Jays

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Seattle Mariners

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Trey Yesavage – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Tallying 93.6 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Trey Yesavage places him the 86th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Kazuma Okamoto’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 91.6-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 77.8-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Emerson Hancock has relied on his change-up 14.6% less often this season (5.6%) than he did last season (20.2%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cal Raleigh’s true offensive talent to be a .350, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .092 gap between that figure and his actual .258 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• Colt Emerson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+115)
  Colt Emerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 36% ROI)