Los Angeles Angels
Washington Nationals
(-120/+100)-110
The Washington Nationals will look to continue their positive momentum against the Los Angeles Angels on August 10, 2024, following a narrow 3-2 victory over the Angels a day prior. In a season marked by struggles for both teams, the Nationals stand at 53-64 while the Angels trail closely at 51-65.
On the mound, the Nationals are set to start Patrick Corbin, who has struggled this year with a 2-12 record and a bloated 5.88 ERA. However, his 4.27 xFIP suggests he may be due for some better luck. Corbin’s recent outings paint a troubling picture, highlighted by his last start where he allowed four earned runs over six innings. In contrast, Griffin Canning of the Angels, despite being a low-strikeout pitcher, is coming off a solid start in which he surrendered just one earned run in five innings, racking up eight strikeouts.
The matchup poses intriguing dynamics: Griffin Canning has a high flyball rate of 36% and faces a Nationals squad that has the 2nd least amount of home runs this season. Conversely, Canning’s low strikeout percentage of 17.5% meets a Nationals offense that ranks 6th in MLB for fewest strikeouts.
The projections indicate that the Angels could have a slight edge in this matchup, favored to score 5.41 runs on average compared to the Nationals’ 4.68 runs. With both teams showcasing weak bullpens—ranked 29th and 28th respectively—the potential for runs may be heightened. As the Nationals aim to build on their recent success, fans will be watching closely to see if they can capitalize on the Angels’ struggles and maintain their winning streak.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Griffin Canning – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Griffin Canning’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this season (92.8 mph) below where it was last season (94 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)Brandon Drury is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Los Angeles Angels (21.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)Patrick Corbin projects to average 3.1 earned runs in today’s matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)James Wood has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.2-mph to 98.4-mph in the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Washington Nationals – 2H MoneylineThe Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 60 games (+7.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Run Line -1.5 (+150)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 49 of their last 83 games (+7.05 Units / 6% ROI)
- Juan Yepez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+10.10 Units / 29% ROI)