Player Prop Odds for Phillies vs Dodgers – Wednesday August 07, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on August 7, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for postseason positioning. The Dodgers currently sit at 66-47, while the Phillies are slightly ahead at 66-46. This matchup marks the third game in their series, with both teams showcasing strong performances throughout the season.

In their last outing, the Dodgers struggled, which could affect their momentum heading into this game. Meanwhile, the Phillies have been riding a wave of success, bolstered by Kyle Schwarber’s recent hot streak, where he has been a key contributor to their offense.

On the mound, Gavin Stone is projected to start for the Dodgers. Despite being ranked as the 129th best starting pitcher in MLB, his 3.63 ERA indicates he has been effective this season, although his 4.19 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some luck. Stone’s ability to limit walks (6.6 BB%) could be crucial against a Phillies offense that ranks 4th in MLB for most walks. However, he will need to improve on his projections of allowing 5.5 hits and 1.5 walks per game, as these numbers are concerning.

Tyler Phillips, slated to start for the Phillies, has had a tough season, with an ERA of 4.39 and a FIP of 5.15. His projections indicate he may struggle against a potent Dodgers lineup that ranks 4th in MLB for offensive performance, including being 3rd in home runs. The projections suggest that both pitchers could have their hands full, but the Dodgers’ offensive depth and power give them an edge in this matchup.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs and the Dodgers holding a moneyline of -135, the betting markets are anticipating a close contest. The Dodgers’ strong home field advantage at Dodger Stadium could play a significant role in this pivotal game.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (+120)
  Among every team today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  In terms of his home runs, Bryce Harper has been very fortunate this year. His 35.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 23.8.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Gavin Stone – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Gavin Stone is projected to throw 84 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Gavin Lux is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jason Heyward – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jason Heyward pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+7.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 95 games (+16.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+410/-650)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 14 away games (+10.75 Units / 77% ROI)