Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Marlins vs Yankees – Sunday, April 05, 2026

Miami Marlins

@

New York Yankees

Miami Marlins Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Chris Paddack in the 18th percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Heriberto Hernandez, Connor Norby, Austin Slater).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-290)
  Out of all the teams today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  When assessing his batting average ability, Aaron Judge is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-295)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 72 games (+15.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+240)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 49 away games (+21.35 Units / 41% ROI)
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)
  Ben Rice has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 62% ROI)