Match Preview: Nationals vs Cubs Game Forecast and Analysis – Sunday, March 29, 2026

Washington Nationals

@

Chicago Cubs

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has utilized his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 54% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Keibert Ruiz’s 2.2% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) grades out in the 5th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-250)
  The Chicago Cubs infield defense grades out as the best among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  Michael Busch’s speed has fallen off this year. His 26.5 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.9 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-225)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 79 games at home (+20.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 away games (+10.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Daylen Lile has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)