D-Backs vs Dodgers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Saturday, March 28, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Eduardo Rodriguez’s 91.4-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 16th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jorge Barrosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jorge Barrosa’s 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) is in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Tyler Glasnow has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Freddie Freeman is certain to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the entire game considering none of the available options for the Arizona Diamondbacks share his handedness.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 100 games (+15.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games (+12.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.65 Units / 33% ROI)