Recommended Player Prop Bets for Cardinals vs Cubs – Sunday September 28, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Chicago Cubs

On September 28, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League Central matchup. The Cubs are riding high after a 7-3 victory in their previous encounter and boast a solid 91-70 record this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, with a record of 78-83, have struggled, leaving them well outside the playoff picture.

Javier Assad is slated to start for the Cubs. While he is ranked 237th among starting pitchers according to advanced statistics, he has posted a respectable 4.26 ERA this season. However, his 5.09 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat fortunate and could face challenges moving forward. Assad’s ground-ball rate of 47% could work in his favor against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 29th in home runs, making it less likely that they can capitalize on his mistakes.

Kyle Leahy will take the mound for the Cardinals, and while he has a stellar 3.18 ERA, his 3.77 xFIP indicates potential regression. Leahy’s projections show he will pitch only 3.0 innings on average, which may limit his effectiveness. The Cubs’ offense, ranked 7th best in MLB, should be able to exploit this, especially with their best hitter performing exceptionally well lately, boasting a .450 batting average over the past week.

With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied team total of 3.98 runs. The Cardinals, however, are projected to struggle, with an implied total of just 3.52 runs. Given the disparities in offensive performance and starting pitching, this matchup heavily favors the Cubs as they look to extend their winning streak against a struggling Cardinals squad.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Kyle Leahy has been lucky this year, notching a 3.18 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.69 — a 1.51 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Pedro Pages has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph dropping to 81-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pedro Pages, Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Javier Assad’s 2041.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 11th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.376) provides evidence that Seiya Suzuki has suffered from bad luck this year with his .342 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago Cubs batters as a unit rank 5th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 10% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 64 games at home (+15.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 60 away games (+7.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+670/-1400)
  Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+12.80 Units / 320% ROI)