Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Dodgers vs Mariners – 9/27/25

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers gear up for their showdown on September 27, 2025, both teams are enjoying solid seasons, with the Mariners at 90-70 and the Dodgers at 91-69. This Interleague matchup carries significant weight as both teams look to solidify their playoff positions. The Mariners are currently projected to start Logan Gilbert, who is ranked as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gilbert’s ERA sits at a commendable 3.43, and he’s been notably unlucky this year, as indicated by his 2.93 xFIP.

In their last game, the Mariners managed to secure a crucial victory, further boosting their confidence heading into this matchup. Gilbert has started 24 games this season and projects to pitch around 5.8 innings today, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs, which should give Seattle a strong chance against a potent Dodgers lineup. However, Gilbert will need to navigate a high-walk Dodgers offense that leads the league in walks, as his low walk rate of 5.8% could potentially neutralize their patient approach.

On the other side, Tyler Glasnow is set to take the mound for Los Angeles. Ranked 23rd among starting pitchers, Glasnow holds an impressive ERA of 3.30 but has been somewhat fortunate, as evidenced by his higher SIERA of 3.88. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings, giving up about 2.3 earned runs and striking out 7.3 batters on average. With the Dodgers’ offense ranked 2nd in MLB, they pose a significant threat, but they have struggled with strikeouts, making this matchup intriguing.

The Mariners currently have a moneyline of -120, which reflects their slight favoritism in this closely matched contest. With an average implied team total of 3.84 runs, they will need their offense to step up against a strong Dodgers bullpen that ranks 1st in MLB. This game promises to be a tightly contested battle, and the Mariners will look to leverage their home-field advantage to secure a vital win.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Tyler Glasnow has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under Hits
  When it comes to his batting average, Tommy Edman has been unlucky this year. His .229 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .282.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (+105)
  The 3rd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Logan Gilbert’s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (37.7 compared to 32.3% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-125)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 28 games at home (+18.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 79 games (+14.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+140/-180)
  Randy Arozarena has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+8.65 Units / 20% ROI)