Discover Current Player Trends for Angels vs Cubs – 07 July 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Angels are set to face off on July 7, 2024, at Wrigley Field for the third game of their interleague series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Cubs holding a 41-49 record and the Angels at 37-51. Neither team is currently contending for a playoff spot.

The Cubs are projected to start Hayden Wesneski, a right-handed pitcher who ranks as the 110th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Wesneski has had an up-and-down season, with a 2-5 win/loss record and a 4.14 ERA. However, his peripheral stats suggest he might have been a bit fortunate so far, with a 4.78 xERA and a 4.92 FIP indicating potential regression. Wesneski’s projections for today aren’t promising, with an expected 4.6 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, and 4.5 strikeouts.

On the other side, the Angels will send Jose Soriano to the mound. Soriano, also a right-hander, is ranked 51st among starting pitchers, making him a more reliable option. Soriano has a 4-6 record with a solid 3.77 ERA over 12 starts. His projections for today include 4.3 innings pitched, 2.6 earned runs allowed, and 4.1 strikeouts, which are also underwhelming but slightly better compared to Wesneski’s.

The Cubs’ offense ranks 18th overall but struggles with batting average (25th) and home runs (23rd), though they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 9th. The Angels’ offense is similarly average, ranking 17th overall, with a better standing in home runs (14th) but also a lower batting average (20th). Both teams’ bullpens are a mixed bag, with the Cubs ranking 18th and the Angels sitting at the bottom of the league at 30th.

Ian Happ has been the Cubs’ standout hitter over the past week, with a .368 batting average, 7 hits, 4 runs, 8 RBIs, and 2 home runs in 6 games. For the Angels, Logan O’Hoppe has been hot, posting a .353 average and .833 OPS over 5 games.

The betting odds favor the Cubs, with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with these odds, projecting the Cubs with a 56% win probability. Given the Cubs’ superior bullpen and the Angels’ struggles in that department, Chicago appears to have the edge in this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jose Soriano to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 77 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Chicago (#3-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Compared to their .320 overall projected rate, the .309 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Angels projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup significantly a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Hayden Wesneski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Hayden Wesneski’s slider usage has jumped by 5.8% from last year to this one (32.2% to 38%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Christopher Morel is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago’s 92.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #6 offense in baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+12.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 away games (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Michael Busch has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.90 Units / 49% ROI)