Player Props Preview for Cardinals vs Cubs – 8/3/24

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to take on the St. Louis Cardinals on August 3, 2024, this National League Central matchup takes on added significance, especially after the Cubs secured a 6-3 victory over the Cardinals just yesterday. Both teams find themselves in the middle of a competitive race, but with the Cubs sitting at 54-58 and the Cardinals at 56-54, it’s clear that the stakes are high for Chicago as they look to build momentum.

Jameson Taillon is projected to take the mound for the Cubs, and while his 3.35 ERA this season is impressive, his xFIP of 4.19 suggests he’s been a bit lucky and may not maintain that level of performance. Taillon’s recent struggles were evident in his last start, where he allowed 6 earned runs in just 4 innings, raising questions about his consistency. On the other side, Kyle Gibson, with a 3.97 ERA, also has room for improvement, particularly with a concerning xERA of 4.94 that indicates he’s been fortunate this season as well.

Offensively, the Cubs have struggled, ranking 21st in MLB this year. However, they do boast a strong base-running game, ranking 8th in stolen bases. The Cubs’ best hitter, Ian Happ, has been a crucial asset, but Cody Bellinger has emerged as a hot bat recently, hitting .471 with an OPS of 1.353 over the last week. Conversely, the Cardinals have seen some solid contributions from Alec Burleson, who has performed consistently throughout the season.

Betting markets seem to view this as a close contest, with the Cubs holding a slight edge in the moneyline at -120, while projections suggest they may score slightly more than the Cardinals. As both teams look to solidify their positions, this matchup promises to be intriguing for fans and bettors alike.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Throwing 92 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Kyle Gibson places him the 77th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.338) may lead us to conclude that Willson Contreras has been very fortunate this year with his .372 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• As a team, St. Louis Cardinals hitters have excelled in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 3rd-best in baseball.
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Jameson Taillon’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (59.7% this year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Isaac Paredes has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 5.2% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)
  Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 42 games (+23.50 Units / 56% ROI)