Match Preview: White Sox vs Yankees Game Forecast and Analysis – Thursday, September 25, 2025

Chicago White Sox

@

New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees gear up to face off against the Chicago White Sox on September 25, 2025, both teams enter with considerably different narratives. The Yankees, boasting a strong 90-68 record, are in the thick of a competitive season, while the White Sox sit at a disappointing 58-100. This game marks the third matchup in the series, and the Yankees will be looking to capitalize on their strong offensive capabilities against a struggling White Sox team.

In the previous game, New York’s Carlos Rodon dominated on the mound, showcasing his skill as he heads into this matchup. Rodon is projected to start and has had an impressive season, with a 17-9 record and a stellar 3.04 ERA, ranking him as the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced projections. Although his expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) suggests he might be due for a slight regression, his ability to limit earned runs remains a key strength.

Davis Martin counters for the White Sox, but his recent performances have not inspired confidence. With a 7-10 record and a 4.03 ERA, he’s ranked among the worst in the league, and his projections indicate a concerning average of 3.2 earned runs expected today. As a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Yankees lineup that ranks 1st in home runs and 3rd in strikeouts, Martin could be in for a challenging outing.

The Yankees are sizeable favorites with a moneyline of -300, indicating their status as a strong contender in this matchup. With an implied team total of 5.35 runs, they are expected to exploit weaknesses in Chicago’s pitching and capitalize on their potent offense. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s low implied total of 3.15 runs highlights their struggles at the plate. As the Yankees look to keep their momentum, this game provides a clear opportunity for them to secure another victory.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+215)
  In his last outing, Davis Martin was rolling and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Colson Montgomery’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 88.4-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 85-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Michael A. Taylor hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to average, Carlos Rodon has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 7.3 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Ben Rice has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .356 figure is quite a bit lower than his .412 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-300)
  The best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-295)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 53 games (+15.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (+120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 73 of their last 123 games (+11.95 Units / 7% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.50 Units / 34% ROI)