Marlins vs Phillies Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 9/25/2025

Miami Marlins

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Miami Marlins on September 25, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the National League East. The Phillies, currently 1st in the division with a record of 93-65, are enjoying a strong season, while the Marlins sit in 4th place at 77-81, having had an average year. Notably, the Phillies recently took the second game of this series, demonstrating their dominance at Citizens Bank Park.

Walker Buehler is projected to take the mound for Philadelphia, and while he has had a challenging season with a 5.13 ERA and a 9-7 record over 23 starts, he benefits from a potent Phillies offense that ranks 3rd in MLB. This unit has been firing on all cylinders, boasting a 2nd best team batting average and a solid 9th best in home runs. The projections suggest that Buehler may struggle, with an expected average of 4.6 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed today.

Janson Junk, on the other hand, will start for Miami. With a 4.27 ERA and a 6-3 record over 16 starts, he faces a tough challenge against a lineup that has been performing exceptionally well. Junk’s projections indicate he may pitch slightly longer than Buehler, averaging 4.9 innings, but he is also expected to allow around 3.0 earned runs, which is troubling considering the potency of the Phillies’ offense.

With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, bettors may find the Phillies’ moneyline of -165 appealing, reflecting their strong implied team total of 4.99 runs. Given the matchups and the current form of both teams, the Phillies appear well-positioned to continue their winning ways in this pivotal series.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  In his previous outing, Janson Junk was rolling and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Liam Hicks has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernandez, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Walker Buehler to throw 77 pitches in this matchup (4th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Max Kepler’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 90.7-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 75.3-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 64 games at home (+15.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+140)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 52 away games (+20.65 Units / 38% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+185/-245)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Home Runs Over in his last 4 games at home (+7.75 Units / 194% ROI)