Learn from the Match Preview: Twins vs Rangers Game Forecast – September 24, 2025

Minnesota Twins

@

Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 24, 2025, both teams are looking to find their footing in this American League matchup. The Rangers, with a record of 79-78, are having an average season and currently sit on the fringes of contention, while the Twins are struggling at 68-89, showcasing a tough year. In their last encounter, the Rangers fell to the Twins by a score of 4-1, highlighting the uphill battle they face in this series.

The Rangers are projected to send Jacob deGrom to the mound, who ranks as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. DeGrom’s current record is 12-8 with a solid ERA of 3.01. However, he recently struggled in his last outing, allowing 5 earned runs over just 5 innings. On the other side, Taj Bradley will take the hill for the Twins. With a 6-8 record and a less impressive ERA of 5.20, Bradley’s recent performance has also been concerning, as he gave up 7 earned runs in his last start.

When it comes to offensive production, the Rangers’ bats have been less than potent, ranking 26th in MLB this season, while the Twins sit at 18th. The projections suggest that the Rangers have a higher implied team total of 4.31 runs for this matchup, compared to the Twins’ low 3.19 runs. Moreover, the Rangers’ bullpen ranks 9th, indicating they might be able to hold any late leads better than the Twins, whose bullpen is ranked 29th.

With the stakes high and both teams eager to improve, this matchup promises to be a pivotal moment in their respective seasons. The Rangers, despite their recent loss, enter this game with a stronger overall team and pitching advantage, which could play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Taj Bradley’s 95.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 85th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• James Outman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+120/-155)
  As it relates to his batting average, James Outman has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .146 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .185.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob deGrom to throw 81 pitches in this matchup (5th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Alejandro Osuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  In the last 14 days, Alejandro Osuna’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 73 games at home (+10.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 77 games (+11.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+155/-205)
  Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+7.95 Units / 20% ROI)