Washington Nationals
New York Mets
(-120/+100)-275
As the New York Mets prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 21, 2025, they find themselves in a position of strength in the National League East. The Mets currently hold an 80-75 record, showcasing an above-average season, while the Nationals sit at a disappointing 63-92. The Mets are coming off a strong showing in their last matchup, where they took the second game of the series against the Nationals.
On the mound for the Mets is Sean Manaea, who, despite a 2-3 record and a 5.40 ERA this year, projects to allow just 1.9 earned runs over 5.1 innings today. His xFIP of 3.27 indicates that he has been somewhat unlucky and may improve as the season winds down. Conversely, Jake Irvin takes the hill for the Nationals, bringing an 8-13 record and a troubling 5.76 ERA. Irvin’s struggles are compounded by a poor projection of 3.2 earned runs allowed in less than 5 innings of work.
Offensively, the Mets rank 5th in MLB for runs scored and home runs, bolstered by their potent lineup. Their best hitter has been exceptional lately, boasting a 1.000 batting average and a 2.000 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Nationals’ offense ranks 25th in MLB, highlighting their struggles at the plate.
Given the disparity in pitching matchups and offensive performance, the Mets enter this game as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -260, suggesting a strong likelihood of victory against a struggling Nationals team. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, which reflects an expectation of offensive production from the Mets, who are projected to score over 5 runs today.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has gone to his secondary pitches 5.1% more often this season (46.8%) than he did last season (41.7%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Despite posting a .348 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Daylen Lile has experienced some positive variance given the .036 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .312.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- Sean Manaea – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Sean Manaea’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this year (90.9 mph) below where it was last year (92.3 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Over the past 14 days, Jeff McNeil’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.2% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-275)The 3rd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the New York Mets.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 52 games at home (+13.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 74 games (+12.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- Juan Soto – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-145)Juan Soto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.55 Units / 48% ROI)