Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Giants vs Dodgers – Friday, September 19th, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face off against the San Francisco Giants on September 19, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League West matchup. The Dodgers currently sit at 86-67, enjoying a solid season, while the Giants are hovering around .500 with a 76-77 record. In their last encounter, the Dodgers edged the Giants 2-1, continuing their dominance in this series.

Clayton Kershaw is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, bringing a 10-2 record and a respectable 3.53 ERA this season. However, recent projections suggest he may struggle, as he is expected to pitch just 4.7 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs and 4.6 hits. His last outing saw him giving up 4 earned runs over 3 innings, raising concerns about his consistency. Meanwhile, Robbie Ray will be pitching for the Giants, looking to bounce back from a rough start where he allowed 5 earned runs in just 4 innings. Despite his struggles, Ray’s ERA sits at an impressive 3.50, indicating he can still be a threat.

The matchup heavily favors the Dodgers, whose offense ranks as the 2nd best in MLB, highlighted by their power with 225 home runs this season. In contrast, the Giants’ offense has struggled, ranking 21st overall and 26th in batting average. Given the Dodgers’ ability to capitalize on Ray’s flyball tendency, they are poised for a strong offensive showing.

With the Dodgers entering as betting favorites at -165 and an implied team total of 4.74 runs, they are expected to exploit the Giants’ weaknesses. This game presents a pivotal opportunity for the Dodgers to extend their lead in the division while the Giants fight to stay relevant.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  With 6 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Robbie Ray faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Wilmer Flores has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .305 rate is quite a bit higher than his .275 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Clayton Kershaw’s 88.4-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 3rd percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Mookie Betts has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 5.5% seasonal rate to 14.6% over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-185)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense ranks as the 4th-strongest of the day in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 games at home (+11.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Run Line +1.5 (-135)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Clayton Kershaw has hit the Strikeouts Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 28% ROI)