Discover Current Player Trends for Cubs vs Reds – 9/19/25

Chicago Cubs

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park on September 19, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams in this National League Central matchup. The Cubs, currently sitting at 88-65, are enjoying a strong season, while the Reds are at 77-76, navigating an average year. The last time these two clubs met, the Reds edged out the Cubs 1-0, showcasing the tight competition that has characterized this series.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start Nick Lodolo, who has had a decent season with a 3.30 ERA, ranking him as the 45th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. However, Lodolo did struggle in his last outing, surrendering 5 earned runs over 5 innings. He’ll face Cubs’ lefty Shota Imanaga, who boasts a solid 3.29 ERA but is considered an average pitcher based on the projections. Both pitchers are expected to pitch approximately 5.3 innings, but Imanaga’s last performance saw him allowing 3 earned runs despite striking out 9 batters.

Offensively, the Cubs have the advantage, ranking 10th in MLB, while the Reds sit at 19th. The Cubs’ lineup has been bolstered by a strong performance from their best hitter, who has hit 29 home runs this season. In contrast, the Reds have struggled with power, ranking 24th in home runs. This discrepancy could be pivotal, especially with both teams projected to score around 4.00 runs today, making for an interesting betting line that reflects the closeness of the matchup.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Shota Imanaga is an extreme flyball pitcher (45% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Carlos Santana pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.1% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Nick Lodolo’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (50.4% compared to 43.7% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Austin Hays’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 88.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 75.6-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds projected offense profiles as the 5th-worst of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 120 games (+26.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 106 games (+12.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+115/-150)
  Nick Lodolo has hit the Walks Allowed Under in his last 8 games (+8.30 Units / 73% ROI)