Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Reds vs Athletics – September 12, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face off against the Cincinnati Reds at Sutter Health Park on September 12, 2025, both teams come into the matchup with recent victories, but their standings tell a different story. The Athletics, with a record of 67-80, are having a below-average season, while the Reds sit at 74-72, marking an average campaign.

In their last game, the Athletics edged out the Reds 5-4, showcasing their potent offense, which ranks as the 7th best in MLB this season. Despite their overall struggles, the Athletics have excelled in batting average (4th) and home runs (4th), indicating their offensive capabilities. However, they have been plagued by a lack of speed on the bases, ranking 27th in stolen bases.

On the mound, J.T. Ginn is projected to start for the Athletics, bringing a mixed bag of results this season. His 3-6 record and 4.95 ERA suggest inconsistency, but his advanced metrics indicate he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.22 xFIP suggests he could improve. Ginn’s last start was promising, where he allowed just 1 earned run over 5 innings.

Brady Singer counters for the Reds, boasting a solid 13-9 record and a respectable 3.98 ERA. His performance has been more consistent, and he also pitched well in his last outing, giving up only 1 earned run over 6 innings.

With both offenses capable of putting runs on the board, the game total is set at a high 10.5 runs. The Athletics have an implied team total of 5.37 runs, indicating that oddsmakers expect them to score heavily. Given their offensive prowess, they may be undervalued in this matchup, making them a team to watch closely as they aim to continue their winning ways against the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Brady Singer’s slider rate has decreased by 6.9% from last season to this one (45.5% to 38.6%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 89.7-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 80.1-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (-120)
  The Athletics infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Despite posting a .425 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nicholas Kurtz has been very fortunate given the .073 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .352.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen grades out as the worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Run Line -1.0 (+115)
  The Athletics have hit the Run Line in 49 of their last 83 games (+8.65 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 110 games (+24.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)
  Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+6.40 Units / 16% ROI)