In-depth Player Analysis for Orioles vs Guardians – Thursday August 01, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on August 1, 2024, both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Guardians holding a record of 65-42 and the Orioles at 65-44. This matchup is significant as it marks the first game of their series, and both teams are in contention for playoff spots, making each game crucial.

In their last outing, the Guardians secured a convincing 5-0 win against the Detroit Tigers, showcasing their solid pitching and defense. Meanwhile, the Orioles also came off a victory, defeating the Toronto Blue Jays 10-4. This sets the stage for an exciting clash at Progressive Field, where the Guardians will look to leverage their home advantage.

Cleveland is projected to start Ben Lively, who has had an up-and-down season, with a Win/Loss record of 9-6 and an ERA of 3.44. However, his advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate this year, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.29. Lively’s high flyball rate (38 FB%) could be a concern against the Orioles’ powerful lineup, which leads MLB with 157 home runs this season.

On the other side, Baltimore will send Trevor Rogers to the mound. Despite a less-than-stellar 2-9 record, Rogers has shown flashes of potential. He has an average ERA of 4.53, but his low strikeout rate (18.0 K%) could be problematic against a Guardians offense that ranks 15th in the league.

Interestingly, projections suggest the Guardians could score around 5.18 runs, while the Orioles might tally 5.53 runs. This indicates a potentially high-scoring affair, with a Game Total set at 9.5 runs. Given the Guardians’ solid bullpen, currently ranked 5th, they may have the edge in the later innings, making this a matchup to watch closely.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+145/-185)
  With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Trevor Rogers will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Cedric Mullins II has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-110)
  The best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the strongest out of every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Bo Naylor is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Baltimore (#3-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 96 games (+11.37 Units / 9% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-165)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 90 games (+12.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.00 Units / 59% ROI)