Analyze the Team Stats and Insights for Phillies vs Marlins Match Preview – September 06, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

On September 6, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Philadelphia Phillies at LoanDepot Park in a pivotal National League East matchup. The Phillies have been on a tear, boasting an 82-59 record this season, while the Marlins are struggling below average at 65-76. In their last game, the Marlins dropped the first contest of this series to the Phillies, who are looking to solidify their strong postseason position.

Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is set to take the mound, despite having a tough season with an 8-11 record and a troubling 5.66 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky, as his xFIP stands at a more favorable 4.30, indicating potential for improvement. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, but his average strikeout rate of 4.6 batters could be a concern against a potent Phillies lineup.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, who has had a solid year with a 12-6 record and a 4.05 ERA. Luzardo’s impressive strikeout ability, with a K% of 27.9, will be critical against the Marlins’ offense, which ranks just 21st in MLB. Luzardo’s projections are promising, as he is expected to pitch 5.6 innings and allow only 2.3 earned runs.

The Marlins’ offense struggles with power, ranking 27th in home runs, which could be detrimental against a Phillies pitching staff that ranks 2nd in bullpen effectiveness. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting balanced expectations from both sides. With the Phillies favored at -155, the Marlins, listed as underdogs at +135, will need to capitalize on their chances to improve their standing.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-160)
  The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Harrison Bader has been lucky this year, notching a .347 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .308 — a .039 difference.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Compared to average, Sandy Alcantara has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 4.4 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  In the last week’s worth of games, Otto Lopez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Eric Wagaman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+135)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 66 games (+12.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 105 games (+17.61 Units / 14% ROI)
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)
  Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+8.10 Units / 32% ROI)