Player Prop Odds for White Sox vs Twins – Wednesday September 03, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Minnesota Twins

On September 3, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Chicago White Sox at Target Field in a pivotal matchup in the American League Central. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Twins holding a record of 62-76 and the White Sox sitting at 51-88. The Twins have already been eliminated from division contention, while the White Sox are mired in a terrible season.

In their most recent game, the Twins managed to secure a win against the White Sox, increasing the stakes for this series finale. The Twins are projected to start Zebby Matthews, who, despite a middling 4-4 record and a 5.06 ERA, ranks as the 60th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This ranking indicates that Matthews has the potential to perform better than his current statistics suggest. He faces off against Yoendrys Gomez, who has struggled this season as well, with a 5.20 ERA and a low ranking among pitchers.

The Twins’ offense, while not spectacular—ranking 19th overall—has shown some signs of life. Their best hitter has been particularly effective recently, posting a .333 batting average and an impressive 1.370 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the White Sox offense ranks 28th in MLB and has struggled to generate consistent production, making this matchup even more favorable for the Twins.

With the Twins favored at a moneyline of -175 and an implied team total of 4.79 runs, they are positioned to capitalize on the White Sox’s weak offense. However, the matchup will hinge on Matthews’ ability to harness his skills and limit the damage against a struggling White Sox lineup. As the series draws to a close, both teams will look to finish strong, but the odds appear to favor the Twins in this critical contest.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  Yoendrys Gomez is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue among all major league parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Chase Meidroth – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Chase Meidroth is penciled in 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Michael A. Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
  Zebby Matthews has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA this year; his 5.06 rate is considerably higher than his 3.73 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Byron Buxton has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.7-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 92-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+10.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 79 of their last 138 games (+14.45 Units / 9% ROI)
• Kyle Teel – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Kyle Teel has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+17.30 Units / 346% ROI)