Get Expert Player Predictions for Marlins vs Nationals – September 02, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Miami Marlins on September 2, 2025, they will look to build on a recent victory where they shut out the Marlins 2-0 in their last matchup. Currently, the Nationals sit at 54-83, struggling through a rough season, while the Marlins are slightly better at 65-73, still not performing at their best.

Cade Cavalli is projected to take the mound for the Nationals, entering this game with a 1-1 record and a 5.11 ERA. Despite the high ERA, advanced projections suggest he has been somewhat unlucky this year, indicating potential for improvement. However, Cavalli’s last start was a rough outing, as he allowed 7 earned runs over just 2 innings. He faces a Marlins lineup that ranks 20th in MLB offensively but has struggled with strikeouts, which might play to Cavalli’s advantage as he thrives on high strikeout rates.

Opposing him will be Adam Mazur, who has had a rocky start to his season with an 0-1 record and a troubling 5.59 ERA. Mazur’s projections indicate he may also have been unfortunate this year. His high ground-ball rate could mitigate the Nationals’ power struggles, as they rank 28th in home runs, making it less likely for them to capitalize on Mazur’s control issues.

Betting markets currently favor the Nationals, giving them a moneyline of -125. Given their recent form and the potential for Cavalli to bounce back, the Nationals might just edge out a win in this tightly contested matchup. With a game total set at 9.0 runs, bettors can expect an engaging clash as both teams aim for a critical win.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Adam Mazur – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to average, Adam Mazur has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -11.7 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
  Liam Hicks’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 84.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 80.3-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.270) may lead us to conclude that Jacob Young has suffered from bad luck this year with his .230 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  James Wood has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 48 games at home (+14.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 away games (+17.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+210/-280)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)