Head-to-Head Preview: Cubs vs Rockies Matchup 8/31/25

Chicago Cubs

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies will host the Chicago Cubs on August 31, 2025, in what promises to be a compelling matchup at Coors Field. The Rockies, struggling this season with a record of 38-98, are not in playoff contention, while the Cubs sit comfortably at 78-58, showcasing a solid campaign. In their previous game, the Cubs edged out the Rockies with a narrow 4-3 victory, further highlighting the disparity between the two teams.

Tanner Gordon is projected to take the mound for Colorado, bringing a 5-5 record and a troubling ERA of 6.44 this season. Despite his low strikeout rate of 13.9%, he may face challenges against a Cubs offense that ranks as the 7th best in MLB. However, Gordon’s xFIP of 4.84 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky this year, and he could potentially outperform expectations despite a projection of allowing 3.6 earned runs over 4.5 innings.

On the other side, Matthew Boyd, with a 12-7 record and an impressive ERA of 2.82, offers a stark contrast. Although his recent start saw him struggle, allowing 5 earned runs over 5 innings, he still ranks as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB. Boyd’s ability to limit walks, facing a Rockies offense that ranks 1st in least walks, could play to his advantage.

While the Rockies’ offense ranks 27th overall and has been underwhelming, Boyd’s recent struggles may give them a glimmer of hope. The game total is set at a high 10.5 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. With the Cubs favored heavily, the Rockies will need to capitalize on any mistakes to pull off an upset.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Recording 17.7 outs per game per started this year on average, Matthew Boyd falls in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+140/-180)
  Willi Castro has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs project to score the most runs of all teams on the slate today, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+185)
  Given the 1.81 discrepancy between Tanner Gordon’s 6.44 ERA and his 4.63 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league this year and figures to perform better in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jordan Beck has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.4-mph dropping to 83.5-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .300 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 79 of their last 134 games (+15.62 Units / 10% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-245)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 69 of their last 134 games (+18.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-155/+120)
  Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.05 Units / 28% ROI)