Team Stats and Insights for Reds vs Dodgers Match Preview – 8/27/2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Cincinnati Reds face the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 27, 2025, at Dodger Stadium, both teams are looking to build momentum in this pivotal matchup. The Dodgers currently sit at 76-57, enjoying a solid season, while the Reds are hovering around a .500 record at 68-65. In their last encounter, the Dodgers claimed victory with a 6-3 score, adding to Cincinnati’s struggles as they aim to turn things around.

Shohei Ohtani is slated to take the mound for the Dodgers, despite a rocky start in his last outing on August 20, where he allowed 5 earned runs over 4 innings. His Win/Loss record this year stands at 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA, indicating he’s had some tough luck. However, Ohtani’s advanced metrics suggest he may be poised for improvement, as his 2.72 xFIP indicates he could be better than his ERA shows. On the other hand, Nick Lodolo will start for the Reds. Although he boasts a strong 3.05 ERA and a solid 8-6 record, he faced some challenges in his last abbreviated start, going just 2 innings with 0 earned runs.

The Dodgers offense ranks 2nd in MLB, showcasing their prowess with a team batting average of .284 and 2nd in home runs. In contrast, the Reds’ offense has struggled, ranking 18th overall with just 24 home runs on the season. With the Dodgers’ elite bullpen ranked 1st in the league, they are well-equipped to seal the game if the starters falter.

Betting markets favor the Dodgers significantly, reflected in their moneyline of -180, which implies an average team total of 4.25 runs. The Reds, on the other hand, are underdogs with a moneyline of +155 and a projected total of just 3.25 runs. With the Dodgers in strong form and bolstered by home-field advantage, they appear well-positioned to extend their winning streak against the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 12.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Nick Lodolo to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt McLain’s true offensive talent to be a .320, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .039 gap between that mark and his actual .281 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+155)
  The 5th-weakest projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  With 6 batters who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Shohei Ohtani ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Enrique Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Enrique Hernandez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games at home (+10.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 111 games (+26.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-155/+120)
  Nick Lodolo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.45 Units / 63% ROI)