Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
(-110/-110)+100
As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on August 26, 2025, the stakes may not be high in terms of postseason aspirations, but the matchup promises to be intriguing. The White Sox, with a record of 48-83, have struggled throughout the season, while the Royals sit at 67-65, having experienced an average season. In their previous game, the White Sox delivered a strong performance, blanking the Royals 7-0, marking a moment of triumph amid a tough year.
The pitching duel features Martin Perez for the White Sox and Michael Lorenzen for the Royals. Perez has been a bright spot despite Chicago’s struggles, boasting a commendable 2.51 ERA this year. In his last outing, he went five innings without allowing an earned run, showcasing his potential. However, his advanced metrics suggest some underlying luck, as his 4.45 xFIP indicates he might not sustain his current level of performance.
On the other hand, Lorenzen, who has started 20 games this season, carries a 4.50 ERA. His recent form has been mediocre at best, coming off a game where he allowed three earned runs over four innings. This could spell trouble against a White Sox offense that, despite ranking 28th overall in MLB, might find opportunities against a pitcher who hasn’t been at his best.
With both teams’ offenses ranking among the worst in the league—Chicago at 28th and Kansas City at 24th—runs may be hard to come by. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding both lineups. With the White Sox slightly favored at -110 moneyline odds, bettors might find value in backing Perez, especially considering his recent form and the Royals’ difficulties against left-handed pitching.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)In his previous start, Michael Lorenzen was firing on all cylinders and posted 7 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)Jonathan India is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Kansas City Royals with a 19.5% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Martin Perez – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)Martin Perez has averaged 94.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 88th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Kyle Teel – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Kyle Teel’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 89-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 83.3-mph over the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Chicago White Sox bats as a unit rank 25th- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 29.7% rate of hitting their flyballs and line drives at least 100 mph.Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 51 games at home (+16.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 124 games (+22.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)Colson Montgomery has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)