Cardinals vs Rays Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 8/24/2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on August 24, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, both teams find themselves in a tight battle for respectability. The Rays enter the game with a record of 62-67, having recently secured a victory over the Cardinals by a score of 10-6 in their last outing. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are slightly ahead at 64-66, but both teams are facing challenges as they look to improve their standings.

On the mound, the Rays will send right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot, who has had an above-average season, ranking 72nd among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Pepiot’s ERA is a solid 3.95, though his 4.56 FIP suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune this year. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, but he has struggled with hits, expected to give up about 4.7 per game. His recent start on August 17 was uneventful, yielding 4 earned runs over 6 innings.

Opposing him will be left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore, who has had a tougher year, with a 4.13 ERA and a below-average ranking among pitchers. Liberatore’s projections indicate he might allow 2.9 earned runs and 5.7 hits, which could play into the hands of a Rays offense that ranks 10th in batting average and leads the league in stolen bases. Despite being ranked 15th overall in offense, the Rays have shown the ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Given the Rays’ strong bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, and the Cardinals’ struggles with power—ranking 26th in home runs—this matchup could tilt in favor of Tampa Bay. The Rays are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting a high implied team total of 4.78 runs. In contrast, the Cardinals are underdogs at +115, with an average implied total of 4.22 runs. With both teams aiming for a much-needed win, this game promises to be an intriguing contest.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matthew Liberatore to throw 84 pitches today (4th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jordan Walker has been unlucky this year, notching a .269 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .309 — a .040 difference.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pedro Pages, Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, Jordan Walker).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Ryan Pepiot’s four-seam fastball rate has dropped by 6.4% from last season to this one (50.7% to 44.3%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Josh Lowe is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 69 of their last 118 games (+13.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 65 away games (+8.56 Units / 11% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+175/-230)
  Brandon Lowe has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.20 Units / 55% ROI)