Score Prediction and Insights for Padres vs Dodgers Match – August 15, 2025

San Diego Padres

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers welcome the San Diego Padres to Dodger Stadium for a pivotal National League West matchup on August 15, 2025. Both teams are enjoying solid seasons, with the Dodgers sitting at 68-53 and the Padres slightly ahead at 69-52. The last time these two squared off, the Dodgers fell 6-5, while the Padres dominated their previous game with an 11-1 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Clayton Kershaw is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, and while he has a solid 6-2 record this year and a commendable 3.14 ERA, his xFIP of 4.27 suggests he may have experienced some good fortune. Kershaw’s recent performance was promising, as he pitched 6 innings, allowing only 1 earned run, but his projections indicate he may struggle today, expected to pitch just 5 innings while allowing around 2.7 earned runs and hitting a concerning average of 5.5 hits.

On the other side, Wandy Peralta is anticipated to start for the Padres. Although he has been effective with a 3.13 ERA and a 5-1 record, his peripherals indicate he is a below-average pitcher. Peralta projects to pitch only 1.7 innings today, during which he is likely to give up 1.1 earned runs. With the Dodgers ranked 1st in MLB for offensive prowess, they have the potential to capitalize on Peralta’s inconsistent control.

Despite the high-scoring potential suggested by a game total of 9.0 runs, the Dodgers are positioned as favorites with an implied team total of 4.89 runs. With their potent offense and Kershaw’s experience, Los Angeles could emerge victorious in this crucial series opener as they aim to gain ground in the standings.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s game, Wandy Peralta may not remain in the game more than a couple frames since he will be treated as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 85.8-mph figure last season has fallen off to 83.3-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen profiles as the best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  With 6 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Clayton Kershaw has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Hitters such as Mookie Betts with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Wandy Peralta who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+9.70 Units / 19% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 78 games (+14.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)
  Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+22.00 Units / 314% ROI)